| SCIENCE SAYS BONDS MIGHT HAVE 600 HOMERS, NOT 750 |
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| BONDS' EFFECT ON GAME MORE THAN HOMERS It's surprising that more opposing managers -- and owners -- haven't complained about Bonds more than they have. Because Bonds is not only affecting the game on a personal level but he's affecting the entire game and score in most games he plays... Bonds very presence in the batters box usually results in 1-2 intentional walks a game. And when he walks, he changes the whole dynamic of the game, forcing the opposing manager to rethink his next move with a man on base who normally wouldn't be there. When there is already o man or men on ahead of Bonds it means putting a man in scoring position. Side effects can include rattling the pitcher and/or forcing a pitching change... Many times one or more runs will score, again, simply by Bonds mere presence at the plate. This might be acceptable if Bonds were really a legitimate super, NATURAL, athlete. Never before has one player caused managers to walk a player and cause resulting problems as has Bonds... Prior to 2000, this didn't happen... It's only been since the steroid era...Bonds was never known as a 'clutch' hitter until post-2000. For hard evidence, with Bonds in the lineup the Giants have won 60% of their post-2000 games. Without Bonds in the lineup, the Giants have won only 40% of their games . Bonds on-base percentage is nearly 50% now as compared to 35% before 2000. As Gary Peterson, MSNBC sports analyst states in his 4/22 'Opinion' peace (msnbbc.com), 'There is another aspect to the home runs that Barry Bonds keepings hitting. They keep the Giants in games (editors note: The Giants of late, have so centered the team around Bonds with nary another player of measurable talent, that even Bonds hasn't been able to help the team effort much. Imagine the Giants without bonds over the past 7 years...) Peterson further points out that thru 4/22 , when bonds homers in a game the Giants won 4 games and lost only 1. When he didn't home their record was 3-7. At this rate, the Giants would finish the season with 116 wins Of course, since April, Bonds has cooled down a bit, for reasons we could speculate (ie centered around drug-testing time), while only having about half the at-bats as most full-time players, as his contract calls for days off after night games, late game replacements, etc. 'Sure, it's early in the season,' Peterson points out, 'but over the past three-plus seasons (since Bonds, allegedly, began using steroids), the Giants won 60% of their games (when Bonds homered). When he didn't homer last season, the Giants were 16 games below .500. When Bonds is in the game her provides the Giants with 97% of its fear factor.' And even when Bonds doesn't homer his presence alone -including walks / on-base-percentage - probably means an additional 10-20 wins a season. As another, unnamed writer for a Philadelphia paper puts it, 'Bonds continued productivity makes his fans happier and those who see negatively what he has done get angrier.' Further, recent surveys have found younger fans more accepting of Bonds than older fans, who remember when the most serious thing a player put in his body was a 'greenie' or a beer or two, hardly performance-enhancing.... One more thing. We don't know for sure what Bonds and some others may be using currently, ie the supplement of choice, but every indication is that its probably a form of steroids or HGH (human growth hormone) --that is, in between drug tests-which are only given 4 times a year we have been told. (See right yellow box "Why Bonds Really Dropped Out of Homer Contest') So, after the next drug testing don't be surprised to see Bonds go on anothter homer binge --like after the all star break! |
| BONDS CAREER STATISTICS G AB R HR RBI BB SO BA OBP '86-'98 146 569 105 32 93 104 81 290 .411 '99-'04 136 413 118 49 105 158 63 328 .512 |
AVG.
| PRE-1999 BONDS' .290 Avg, 32 HRs* HARDLY HALL OF FAME NUMBERS 'Game of Shadows' authors Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams have done the math for us, averaging out the alleged 'Pre-Steroid' Bonds years (1986-1988) into one season* vs. the 'Steroid' Bonds years (1999 - 2007). More starting than the homerun discrepancy between the 'steroid era' and pre-steroid era stats are the Runs and RBI numbers. The additional 13 runs scored per season and 12 RBIs add up to an additional 25 runs per season- which could mean an additional 10 wins a year for the Giants, not to mention the other stats. It's interesting, too, that even with Bonds playing 10 less games with 50 fewer at bats, on average, during the 'steroid years', we see these much higher numbers. Had he had the same number of bats and fewer walks, Bonds may have reached the 100 homer mark! Bonds may have a good natural 'batting eye' but we see his walk total -whether intentional or not- going up 50% at an age in life when most people's vision begins to deteriorate. At the same time, Bonds was able to cut his strikeouts by about 25% while raising his batting average 38%, from .290 to a truly Hall of Fame-worthy .328*. That is, if you include purported steroid-users, or do you at least put an asterisk by their achievements. There are many stats and questions that need to be discussed and worked out fairly. So far, Bonds, without a court date, cannot be held accountable and the dignity of baseball cannot preserved. For many fans that is why we discuss this matter at all rather than ignore it while we watch the nation's one-time favorite pastime become a total mockery, with repercussions reaching much further than the sport itself. HALL OF FAME NUMBERS? Many discuss this question, believing Barry Bonds was already a 'shoe-in' for the Hall prior to the whole alleged steroid use. But, how often we only remember what we did today and forget about yesterday -especially in today's 'what-did-you-do-for-me-lately? society. Rather than acting on emotion, let's look at the numbers -- especially for those of you either too young to remember or too-short-term-memoried... A .290 average with 411 homers and 1,216 RBI's , Bonds totals thru 1998, wouldn't put Bonds anywhere near the top of all -time hitters, though many feel that Bonds deserves Hall status off those achievements alone. The 411 homers would rank him 40th. Now, of one was to extrapolate and even give Bonds the benefit of the doubt that he could continue hitting his 32-homers-per-year average from 1999-2007, this would give him 639 homeruns thru the first half of 2007, well below his current 751, at the time of this writing. Mor likely, though, Bonds numbers would have started to dimiinish by 1999 as have everyone else's after age 36. Bonds is the ONLY ONE whose yearly numbers have gone up after age 36. BONDS PRE-1999 TOTALS EXTRAPOLATED TO NOW Runs HR RBI BB SO BA OBP '99-'07 2,152 639 2,006 2,132 1,660 .290 .411 BONDS PRE-1999 TOTALS EXTRAPOLATED TO END OF CAREER* BASED ON NORMAL AGING-DIMINISHING RETURNS Runs HR RBI BB SO BA OBP '99-END 2,000 600 1,750 2,000 1,550 . 280 375 *These are approximate figures based pm an approximate 30% average player reduction in numbers from age 37 to retirement.Based on normal player longevity and dimishing returns, these would likely be Bonds' approximate final numbers (or less)without his (alleged) drug use. In the first chart above, we have extrapolated Bonds' career numbers from the pre-steroid era into the steroid era. Not takiing into account normal aging and inherent drop in numbers, Bonds would have 639 homeruns and 2,006 runs batted in, which would put him fourth in homeruns and third in RBIs among all-time leaders. Quite likely, Bonds career would be over now with numbers significantly lower than these. In the second chart we have allowed that Bonds would still have played another seven years, as he has, into the steroid era, but we have diminished his numbers after 1998 by approximately 30% , the approximate average decline rate for players playing beyond age 36.* Even being this generous, there's little chance that without artificial enhancement Bonds could have come close to Hank Aaron's record of 755. Even 600 homers might have been a stretch for Bonds, considering he had only 411 homers at age 36 when most players are either retired or thinking about it. Bonds would hit nearly 350 more homers after 36-- and is still going. Aaron didn't even make 150 and IWillie Mays did'nt hit 100 in their six years before retirement. Both Mays and Aaron retired at 42 POST-SEASON WOES Even if 600 homers and 2,000 RBIs might be Hall of Fame numbers, Bonds corrected batting average (.290 or .280, as above) might hold him back. The big stolen base numbers of the Eighties and Nineties dropped significantly in the latter years and, even though Bonds has tried to erase our memories, his post-season 'clutch' performances have been forgettable. Excluding the steroid-era year of 2002, Bonds never hit over .261 in any of his seven post-seasons. He had a total of 1 home run and 8 RBIs in 106 at bats during those playoff series of '90-'92, '97, '2000 and '2003. His overall batting average hovered around . Many experts consider playoff performance an important aspect of Hall of Fame consideration. If this is the case, Bonds fails on this count, too. In summation, Bonds wouldn't have made the Hall in 1998 and he shouldn't make it now... We've seen inflated hitting numbers since then and a deterioration in fielding and base-stealing, two aspects that originally made him a strong candidate. And, we are not even bringing into play his probable crime of cover - up and alleged steroid use BONDS NOT THE ONLY LOSER-- PAST TIME FOR GIANTS AND BASEBALL TO ACT As one-time fans of American's favorite PASTTIME many of us are concerned that its way PAST TIME for something to be done about the deterioration of the sport of Major League Baseball. Year after year, we've watched as the Giants have continued putting Bonds on a pedestal. Sure they may have finally asked him to remove his barca-lounger from the locker room, while handing him a check for another $20,000,000 for 2007 when no other team showed any interest in signing him. The Giants have built -or dismantled--their future by keeping Bonds as the centerpiece, the only piece. Imagine, inwardly, how fellow Giants must feel. You'll never hear them talk as this average lot of players, other than a pitcher or two, have jobs they want to keep. Meanwhile the Giants continued to try to put on a good front as they host the 2007 All Star Game , but there's nothing there... The other Barry - Zito- is on the All Star program cover as Bonds doesn't do pictures, but poor Zito, good guy and all, is having a dreadful season, this after the Giants poured another $16 mill in his bank vault. Meanwhile, Giant management continues to make excuses for Bonds--until Magowan's recent All-Star game comment. It's like the Giants are playing defense rather than offence. but, then, again , the Giants can appear pretty offensive. Assistant GM Larry Bayer's (as in aspirin) orchestrated ballot-stuffing to get Bonds into the All Star game was really reaching. And the Giants' announcers are atrocious --maybe the worst 'homers' going, literally rooting on Bonds' and the Giants' every move. Hear Dave Flemming try to root warning-track flies over the fence or how Giants' pitchers 'freeze' (his favorite word) opposing hitters. And local fans eat it up, for the most part, but at least they're showing signs of finally coming out of denial. Meanwhile, Bud Selig's baseball 'investigation' into steroids goes on. What investigation? Bonds may actually be out of baseball one day and Selig will still be trying to get a player to talk. Perhaps in an era when fakery is acceptable or even popular--whether it be beauty queens with plastic boobs or singers lip-singing to back-tracks or cars without bumpers-- maybe Bonds fits right in... After all, he's still riding high while his friend is in jail and Jason Giambi is still under scrutiny for coming clean. What's wrong with this picture? As Simon and Garfunkel once said, 'Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio...? ,,, and Henry Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Roger Maris, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, Harmon Killebrew.... |
DOES BARRY BELONG?
| WHY BONDS REALLY DROPPED OUT OF ALL-STAR HOMER DERBY Bones says he's 'too old' to perform in the homerun hitting contest. One never knows for sure with Barry Bonds but a strong possibility is that the All Star Game is a time of drug testing -- note Neifi Peres of the Detroit Tigers was busted early July -- and Bonds has had to go off his regimen of choice so as not to be caught. Without his 'helpers' Bonds might embarrass himself with low homer derby totals--and Bonds is not one to embarrass himself. Perhaps you haven't noticed that Bonds' homers tend to come in bunches, perhaps 'scheduled' around drug tests, e.g. big surge this year in April and June with low totals in May and July... Another theory is that Bonds is afraid he might hit too many homers in the derby and bring attention to himself and the steroid controversy. Even usually-supportive giants owner Peter McGowan expressed disappointment that Bonds has opted out \of the competition, which he felt would have been a nice gesture to his supportive fans,.. It will be interesting to see how much longer those fans remain supportive... It was also interesting to see one of the few who supported Bond's decision was none other than former Giant Gaylord Perry... |